Friday, December 18, 2015

Double Bus Fault in Stock Market

At the end of every quarter and at year's end, investors in underperforming hedge funds are allowed to withdraw their money. That means fund managers need sell stocks to raise cash at any price to meet that demand. This is a cold and bloodless affair,

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

What Are the Next THINGS?

1, Biotechnology

2, New Material

3, Energy Storage

4, Advanced Drilling Technology for Natural Gas and Oil

5, Renewable Energy

6, Robotics

7, Self-Driving Car

8, 3D Printing

9, Mobile

10, Network For Things

11, Cloud Computing

12, Automation

Saturday, October 31, 2015

Back From A Long Break

Without being realized, I have been away for almost 2 months already. Where, I have been taking time to think and read and think.

Creation is a hard thing. It's never hard to read and digest something as you can always interpret something you read in your own way, whatever it is. However, when you want to put something down in writing, that is the moment that you feel, "gosh, how to organize these words? What am I trying to say here? What is my point? How to make it sound persuasive, convincing while interesting enough?" It is too hard, just like my kids put it, "I am in a writer's block."

Sometimes, however, the thought is so strong that you just want to pour it out without thinking any further. When the thought is clear, the point is strong, and the decision is firm, that is the moment with no hesitation and the result is coming by itself, naturally.

Isn't this the same philosophy when you trade a stock? If you are hesitating, stop doing anything, and go back to read and think and read and think, until the idea is firm, for you to make money. Of course, "firm" here means the probability of winning is higher than at least 98%!

Friday, September 4, 2015

some mutual funds

consumer Discretionary
Fidelity® Select Consumer Discretionary Portfolio (FSCPX)
Fidelity® Select Automotive Portfolio (FSAVX)
Fidelity® Select Leisure Portfolio (FDLSX)
Fidelity® Select Multimedia Portfolio (FBMPX)
Fidelity® Select Retailing Portfolio (FSRPX) 
Consumer Staples
Fidelity® Select Consumer Staples Portfolio (FDFAX)
Energy
Fidelity® Select Energy Portfolio (FSENX)
Fidelity® Select Energy Service Portfolio (FSESX)
Fidelity® Select Natural Gas Portfolio (FSNGX)
Fidelity® Select Natural Resources Portfolio (FNARX)
Financials
Fidelity® Select Financial Services Portfolio (FIDSX)
Fidelity® Select Banking Portfolio (FSRBX)
Fidelity® Select Consumer Finance Portfolio (FSVLX)
Fidelity® Select Insurance Portfolio (FSPCX)
Health Care
Fidelity® Select Health Care Portfolio (FSPHX)
Fidelity® Select Biotechnology Portfolio (FBIOX)
Fidelity® Select Pharmaceuticals Portfolio (FPHAX)
Industrials
Fidelity® Select Industrials Portfolio (FCYIX)
Fidelity® Select Air Transportation Portfolio (FSAIX)
Fidelity® Select Transportation Portfolio (FSRFX)
Information Technology
Fidelity® Select Technology Portfolio (FSPTX)
Fidelity® Select Communications Equipment (FSDCX)
Fidelity® Select Computers Portfolio (FDCPX)
Fidelity® Select Electronics Portfolio (FSELX)
Fidelity® Select Software & Computer Services Portfolio (FSCSX)

Monday, August 31, 2015

Tesla

Tesla Deep Dive

Financially, it's not a sound investment, at least with current situation.

1, only 1% is EV today

2, Tesla lose $4k for each model-S

3, Fiat lose $14k for each EV they sell

4, GM's Bolt comes out the similar time frame with the same price range

5, model-3 is priced less than 50% of that for model-S. In other words, 2.5 model-3 pulls in the same revenue as one model-S

6, if EV sells well, every auto manufacturer will join in, to share a piece of the pie

7, EM's bold statement of "2020 breakeven" does not have enough ground (sorry)

ONLY IF, Tesla's Nevada Gigafactory becomes the de facto battery supplier for all the future EVs sold by EVERY manufacturer; similar to HP's ink business :-)

Unfortunately, I am a personal fan of Elon Musk :-)

Sunday, August 30, 2015

Biotechnology (2) - GILD

Gilead Deep Dive

Overview

Based in Foster City, California, Gilead Sciences (GILD) is a leading biotechnology company. The company is involved in discovering, developing, and commercializing innovative therapies. Gilead has the highest market capitalization in the biotechnology industry, amounting to about $175.8 billion. Peers Amgen (AMGN), Celgene (CELG), and Biogen (BIIB) have market capitalizations of about $134.5 billion, $105.3 billion, and $79.3 billion, respectively.
Gilead’s entire HIV product portfolio is based on Viread, which is a brand name of a compound called tenofovir. These drugs accounted for about 42% of the company’s total revenues in 2014. However, in December 2015, Viread will lose its patent protection; provides drugs to eight out of every ten HIV treatment-naïve patients in the United States; HIV portfolio accounts for a substantial 42% of its total revenues
a leading company in manufacturing drugs for HCV (hepatitis C virus) 

Biotech Series (1) --- Celgene

Celgene Deepdive

"Celgene has been a leading biotechnology company in areas such as hematology, or blood-related diseases, and oncology, or cancer. The company has a strong portfolio of drugs such as Revlimid, Abraxane, Pomalyst, Vidaza, Thalomid, Otezla, and Istodax."



Thursday, August 20, 2015

What Happened Today?

It's so bloody EVERYWHERE!

There are babies dumped out together with the bath water. Which ones are the good babies? Which ones are the ones deserved to go? That is the work for today

Sunday, July 26, 2015

世界原油运输通道要道

http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/66653/201504/981.html

此图列举的世界原油运输通道要道【2】:



运输量:


霍尔木兹马六甲两道对世界影响巨大,后者是亚洲的食道,北亚(东北亚,指中日韩)没了它,活不下去,所以至少在这运输上,美国有手段。

就原油来说,苏伊士运河与中国关系不直接(任何通道受助,油价上升,原油购买国都得付高价。【3】似乎与【2】文想象,但增加了内容:

泛阿拉伯管道(黎巴嫩):输油能力50万桶/天。该管道目前处于关闭状态。
  表2 霍尔木兹海峡输油管道概况表
  单位:万桶/天
管道
国家
状态
输送能力
输送量
剩余能力
-西管道
沙特
运行中
480
200
280
布盖格-延布管道
沙特
运行中
290
290
0
阿布扎比管道
阿联酋
运行中
150
60
90
伊拉克管道
沙特
输送天然气
165
--
--
泛阿拉伯管道
黎巴嫩
关闭
50
0
50
总计
--
--
1135
550
420
  周边重点关注国家:伊朗、伊拉克、科威特、沙特、巴林、卡塔尔、阿联酋及阿曼。

中国历年原油进口量:


广义来说,铁血网列举了16条”战略咽喉要道“【6】:


内有不少资料。


【1】路透社图:
oil chokepoints

霍尔木兹:
straight of Hormuz

马六甲:
Strait of Malacca

就【4】而言,马六甲对中国重要性不如传说的那么重要:

US Medicine Stuff [ZT]

http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/66653/201505/6913.html
一个月前说是美国医药费用创新高,美国在吃药上总共花了三千七百四十亿美元($374 Billions),“大头是(销售额)癌症、糖尿病、精神病、免疫系统紊乱、呼吸道疾病和止疼”。

今天来自IMS Health的报告说,癌症要不但是美国花费最高的,也是世界上花费最大的,过千亿美元,同比过10%。IMS Health预测今后几年年增长率约6-8%。

这是IMS Health提供的图表:



美欧5【注1】日是大头,三地区占了四分之三。估计中国没多少,太贵了,贪官还凑乎。

不管如何,钱都是欧美大制药公司赚了,Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck, Roche, AstraZeneca。

世界卫生组织的报告
Cancer is a leading cause of death worldwide, accounting for 8.2 million deaths in 2012 (1). The most common causes of cancer death are cancers of:
  • lung (1.59 million deaths)
  • liver (745 000 deaths)
  • stomach (723 000 deaths)
  • colorectal (694 000 deaths)
  • breast (521 000 deaths)
  • oesophageal cancer (400 000 deaths) (1).
穷国家,落后,啥都落后,出口多少小虾小鱼才够啊。
这是癌症现状(下)提到的相关资料:

2015.04.03
Why Are Cancer Drugs So Expensive in the U.S.?
2015.03.16
Oncologists reveal reasons for high cost of cancer drugs in U.S.
2015.03.28
5 Freakishly Expensive Cancer Drugs
No. 5: Xofigo, $12,657 monthly cost per patient(晚期前列腺癌)
No. 4: Cyramza, $13,256 monthly cost per patient(非小细胞肺癌、胃癌)
No. 3: Zykadia, $13,672 monthly cost per patient(ALK-positive NSCLC型肺癌)
No. 2: Lenvima, $13,945 monthly cost per patient(甲状腺癌)
No. 1: Blincyto, $64,260 monthly cost per patient(急性淋巴性白血病)

参见:
癌症现状(上)
癌症现状(下)


【注1】欧5:欧洲5大药国,德法英西意。
【注2】路透社:Global cancer drug spending hits $100 billion in 2014: IMS Health
【注3】IMS Health公布

Sunday, May 24, 2015

Why and How Has Buffet Been An Successful Investor?

Why Was He Successful?

When asked why Buffett felt he was such a successful investor throughout the years, he said to Gates that he had simply followed his own rules, which he admits that they are not the simplest to apply, but overall they will prevent people from doing stupid things. Buffett says to Gates that if you have the chance to purchase something – a business, an apartment building, a farm – “of extraordinary value,” then it’s the perfect time to purchase it right then.

Buffett says that you shouldn’t worry if you can get a better price on the deal in the future and that you should just take it while it’s there.

How Did He Do It?

  • Come up with a plan – when investing, it’s important to have a goal for your investment. Invest in value and then learn how to be patient. A famous Warren Buffett quote includes, “the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” So stick to the plan after you have done your homework and made your choice.
  • Investment value – “Price is what you pay, value is what you get,” said Warren Buffett. Whether making an investment or making any other type of purchase, these words are certainly true. Finding value is an important principle to follow as an investor.
  • Read, learn, think – investing in yourself is one of the most important principles that Warren Buffett talks about. Nobody can take away a person’s education. It doesn’t matter what the economic conditions may be, talent is always going to create fantastic returns. The value of an education never deteriorates, which is why you have to develop your skill set. Staying up-to-date is a great way to make smart decisions. And according to Buffett, you’ll never reach success in investing if you are not an independent thinker.

Friday, May 1, 2015

Population

Scientific American says population is “the most overlooked and essential strategy for achieving long-term balance with the environment.” Developed nations “consume 32 times more resources ... put out 32 times more waste” than emerging nations.

Yet we’re adding 60 million new people a month on a planet that lacks sufficient resources to feed the 10 billion predicted for 2050. We need to stabilize or reduce population. But so far less, that seems impossible.

From: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/your-no-1-end-of-the-world-investing-strategy-2015-05-01?page=2

Monday, April 27, 2015

Biggest Monopoly Companies

Google It’s no surprise that Google makes the list. What began as a simple search engine has managed to find its way into every tech-related pursuit. While Google initially began to take off due to powerful marketing and superior search results, it expanded to offer email services, GPS technology, online data storage, calendar services, and even has its own phone. It’s no wonder it controls more than 90 percent of market share. - See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/2/#sthash.Wol0i5l5.dpuf

Monsanto Monsanto is one of the corporate giants that is rarely seen but it actually touches everything that is consumed in the U.S. A biotech company, Monsanto has cornered the corn market with its weed killer and seeds. More than 80 percent of the corn that is grown in the U.S. is Monsanto trademarked. And given that corn is in absolutely everything including rubber, building materials, soaps, and nearly every piece of food imaginable, that’s a pretty big statistic. Monsanto received a lot of negative attention for its copyright clause that prevents farmers from re-using seeds, meaning they have to buy new ones each year, but it’s a big factor in why Monsanto got to be the size it has. - See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/3/#sthash.9oz6oxE7.dpuf


PepsiCo Think of nearly every food and drink brand imaginable: Pepsi. Frito-Lay. Mountain Dew. Gatorade. Tropicana. Quakers. Tostitos. Aquafina. Lipton. And ready for the kicker? Starbucks. Yes, all of these brands and many, many more are owned by PepsiCo (which has also begun focusing its brand extension to China in recent years). It has been acquiring successful brands for decades. So basically every time you pick up a soft drink, juice, snack, or coffee at the Starbucks on every corner, your dollars are heading straight to PepsiCo. - See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/4/#sthash.n9RK4ohg.dpuf 


Microsoft While many say that personal computers are on the way out, Microsoft’s Windows operating system remains the most widely used system in the world. Its market share began to dip in recent years with the increasing popularity of Macs but it still controls more than 75 percent — more so in countries outside of U.S. 
- See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/5/#sthash.HCD5OX97.dpuf

Apple While Microsoft continues to control the market when it comes to computer operating systems, Apple’s niche is clear in its complete monopoly over gadgets. The iPhone is the most popular smartphone by far, and the iPad is overwhelmingly the preferred tablet of the world. When you get into iTunes and the Mac laptops (while some still use Windows operating systems, many prefer the aesthetic and performance of Mac laptops), Apple has a clear monopoly in the tech world. - See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/6/#sthash.B9wjhV8T.dpuf


Anheuser-Busch InBev Everyone has a preferred brand of beer, but most don’t realize that there’s a good chance many of them are owned by Anheuser-Busch. After merging with the Mexican brewing giant Grupo Modelo, Anheuser-Busch brands grew to include Budweiser, Busch, Michelob, Shock Top, Rolling Rock, Natural, Land Shark, Corona, Stella Artois, Beck’s, Hoegardden, and dozens more. So remember that when you get into your next heated argument about the merits of Natty Light vs. Bud Light. They’re all the same.

- See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/7/#sthash.Cfsqzlag.dpuf

Intel Intel’s dominance in the microchip market has been obvious for years. It is without question the largest chip manufacturer in the world, holding more than 80 percent of the market share. Used in nearly every computer, phone and tablet, Intel’s chips literally make the world run. This should give you a hint to the extent of their monopoly: you most likely haven’t heard of their biggest competitor, AMD. - See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/8/#sthash.rRlhnhhP.dpuf


Facebook It may seem bizarre that a company that provides a free service could hold a monopoly over anything, but that’s exactly what Facebook has done to the social media market. It’s estimated that approximately 60 percent of people who use social media sites choose Facebook, and the likes of former giants such as MySpace have nearly disappeared. Say what you will about the obnoxious habits of Facebook users or the unnecessary home page “updates,” but the site shows little sign of slowing down.

- See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/9/#sthash.v03A2oFt.dpuf

Amazon Amazon has long been a big name in the online shopping business, but has really taken off in recent years to become one of the most trusted and used sites out there. Add in the success of the Kindle (Amazon has a clear majority market share when it comes to e-readers), and the online giant makes this list with ease. - See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/10/#sthash.4FWYAN1E.dpuf


Netflix It’s no coincidence that the release of Netflix’s home-delivery movie rental service coincided with the closing of Blockbuster. Netflix has 61 percent of the digital video market, which is larger than its competitors Redbox and Blockbuster. When Netflix released its streaming-only product, more than a thrid of existing Netflix subscribers signed up. Netflix is only expected to grow. - See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/11/#sthash.UzGDIthb.dpuf


Kindle Kindle had an estimated 67 percent of the market share in the e-reader market, beating out its competitor the Nook by more than 40 percent as of this writing. In 2011, e-books began outselling paperback books, which is part of the reason Borders went bankrupt and why you see a lot of digital products at Barnes and Nobles now. - See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/12/#sthash.qrIIqWrq.dpuf


Sirius/XM Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio were the two largest satellite radio providers in the U.S. as of this writing but the two used to be competitors in a game they were both losing. In 2008, they merged to become Sirius/XM and became the only satellite radio provider in the U.S. - See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/13/#sthash.cPCOVzyP.dpuf


PayPal PayPal’s slogan, “The world’s most loved way to pay and get paid” is accurate. Owned by eBay, PayPal is the leader in the online payment industry. PayPal had 157 million “digital wallets” as of this writing, and is available in 203 markets. Apple and Google have announced plans to offer similar online payment services, so PayPal might be looking at competition. - See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/14/#sthash.XD5qZF44.dpuf


Lululemon Athletic Yoga practice may be peaceful, but the industry is making aggressive advances. The company has few competitors and has about a 50-percent market share. To give you some idea of the company’s growing potential, a 2013 poll found Americans spend about $27 billion a year on yoga.

- See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/15/#sthash.GZN4lzd2.dpuf

American Water Works Company, Inc. American Water Works Company, Inc. is the largest public U.S. water and waste utility, with more than 16 million customers in 35 U.S. states plus two Canadian provinces. The company has around a 52-percent market share, and an estimated $4.3 billion market capitalization.

- See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/16/#sthash.vePfMwti.dpuf

Unilever Another member of the giant owns-everything-but-you-never-realized-it club, Unilever owns everything from Dove and Suave to Ben and Jerry’s and Popsicle. The list is seriously too enormous to describe, but just assume that nearly every ice cream item you consume, almost every beauty product you use, and almost every pasta sauce you dump on a bowl of spaghetti has Unilever’s name on it.

- See more at: http://afkinsider.com/23430/biggest-monopolies-world/17/#sthash.BlRkk3LC.dpuf

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Peter Tiel's Ideas

Peter's founder fund has following areas,

1, Aerospace and Transportation

    Cost of transportation to space can introduce a huge commercial door for profit

2, Biotechnology

    Cost, long duration,  of Drug Approval
    Lengthy duration for a company to figure out whether a drug can be effective

3, Advanced Machine / Software

    Artificial Intelligence and Robotics

4, Energy

    Cheap way to produce energy

5, Internet

   

   


Thursday, April 16, 2015

SCI

Service Corporation International: A company overview

Service Corporation International/US (SCI) provides death care services and products. The company has a broad network of cemeteries and funeral service locations and operates primarily in the United States and Canada. The operations of the company consist of crematoria, funeral services, cemeteries, and funeral service locations.
The primary services of Service Corporation International/US include cremation, burial, and embalming. The company also tends to sell conventional funeral necessities such as burial garments, flowers, cremation receptacles, burial values, caskets, and prearranged funeral services.
The company has significantly expanded in the last couple of years through acquisitions. It’s pursuing the market for cremation services in an aggressive manner.

Service Corporation International experiences increased market share and synergies from Stewart acquisition

In 2013, Service Corporation International/US acquired Stewart Enterprises, Inc., its largest competitor, for $1.4 billion. This acquisition made the company the largest provider of death-care services.
Since the acquisition, Service Corporation International/US paid down $230 million over a period of 12 months. Debt-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is expected to fall during 2015, after which the company can accelerate its repurchase of shares.
The company reportedly has sufficient free cash flows to finance further acquisitions and grow its share within the fractured industry.
SCI_Stewart SynergiesEnlarge Graph

What will ensure the company’s competitive advantage?

Service Corporation International/US (SCI) is a major player in the North American stable cemetery and funeral industry. The company has a 16% share of the revenues in the industry. Its scale offers enormous cost efficiencies and purchasing power.
The scale of the firm’s operations offers an opportunity for the company to experience differential growth through preneed sales. Baby Boomers, who are presently benefiting from preneed results, should provide a tailwind for propelling future growth.
The preneed sales for funeral and cemetery services rendered by the company have experienced robust growth due to enhanced productivity and favorable demographics.

Strong, consistent financial performance

Service Corporation International/US (SCI) has been experiencing a robust growth in free cash flow, amounting to a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 17%. Normalized earnings per share for 3Q14 was $0.23, which represents a 28% growth compared to the previous year.
Adjusted operating cash flow grew by 21% to $123.2 million. The company’s strong track record pertaining to double-digit growth in earnings is expected to continue during 2015.
After funding dividend payments, the company has significant levels of free cash flows available for pursuing strategic options such as share repurchases and acquisitions.
In addition to stable cash flow, the company has maintained consistent and substantial liquidity with a target minimum liquidity level of $300 million. The favorable maturity profiles for the company’s debt give it a large amount of financial flexibility.

Sunday, April 12, 2015

There Are More Than STEM

STEM is necessary, but not enough


http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/znjy/2849445.html

World's 20 Largest Economies in 2030


Buffet's Car Business

Buffet now owns everything in the chain:

- BYD makes car (cheaply)

- Dealership sells the cars

- GEICO provides Car Insurance

3 Most Important Traits of Warren Buffet

Traits of Warren Buffet

- Never Stop Learning

- Patience

- Give Credit to the Credit-Worthy

How Does Buffet Invest in Consumer Products?

Warren Buffett doesn’t care about the sexy, glamorous luxury brands. He purchases businesses that he understands, and particularly businesses that have a strong following with the middle class – even if the companies have sluggish growth rates and are boring on the surface.

Thursday, April 9, 2015

Wells Fargo Deep Dive

A qualitative look at loan king Wells Fargo

- Banking is largely a distribution-based business.
  e.g WFC strongest in west; JPM strongest in east; BAC strongest in metropolitan area

- Relation-building is essential to banking;

- International Presence is Important (only 5.77% from International Market);

- WFC leads in the loans (by end of 2013, 1 in every 3 retail mortgages);

- Auto loan king;

- Credit and Debit Cards (can improve to catch up rivals);

- Strong in Retail/Consumer Loans;

- Second Largest Deposit Base;

- Largest Small Business Lender;

- Largest Auto Lender;

- Cross-Selling;

- Commercial and Retail each 50% business, with highest industrial sectors in investors,
   cyclical retailers, oil and gas, and food and beverage, with each about 2% of the business;

- Strong position in commercial real estate (4%);

- Wealth Management, Brokerage, and Retirement Planning (fee based, strong customer base);

- Abbot Downing



- Weak In Investment Banking (JPM - Bear Sterns; C - Salomon Smith Barney;
   BAC - Merryl Lynch; WFC - Wochovia)



- Overall, most competitive




WFC  Strategy --- slow and steady
=========================




Wells Fargo summary
  • Leading market share in mortgage and auto loans; strong in other retail and commercial loans
  • Diversified revenue sources—strong in interest and non-interest income
  • Large, low cost deposit base
  • Strong risk culture—strengthening it even more
  • Experienced management team and satisfied employees
  • Strong returns versus peers with lower volatility
  • Lower risk profile than large peers
  • Broader distribution, scale, and product set than regional banks

Monday, April 6, 2015

Fertilizer Companies









Investment theory ---

Price goes up and down by weather, crop price, inventory, China export policy, etc. Look for pattern, in at low out at high (to gain the delta)

Example 1 Potash Investment

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Beverage Industry

Key alcoholic beverage producers include Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) (ABI.BR), SABMiller (SBMRY) (SAB.L), Diageo (DEO) (DGE.L), Brown-Forman (BF.B), and Bacardi, and Constellation Brands (STZ). 










Bud Light is the leader among the major beer brands, with 18% share of the beer market based on the 2013 total beer industry shipments of 211.7 million barrels. Coors Light, Budweiser, and Miller Lite have a market share of 8.7%, 8.4%, and 7.2%, respectively.
Of the top ten brands based on US shipments, six (Bud Light, Budweiser, Natural Light, Busch Light, and Busch) belong to Anheuser-Busch InBev. Two of the brands in the top-ten list, Coors Light and Miller Lite, are owned by MillerCoors.
Constellation Brands (STZ), through its Crown Imports division, owns rights to Corona Extra in the United States. Corona Extra is one of the best selling imported beers in the United States.


Sunday, March 15, 2015

Money in Gambling (1)

Nevada’s State Gaming Control Board recently released gaming revenues for the month of January 2015 for Nevada and Las Vegas. Revenues increased by 7.75% to $953 million year-on-year. For the fiscal year to date from July 1, 2014, through January 31, 2015, gaming win decreased by 2.1%.

The Las Vegas Strip, which generates more than 50% of Nevada’s gaming revenues, soared above 15% year-on-year to $577 million for the month of January, 2015.





    Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of US economic activity. 

Saturday, March 14, 2015

Chipotle & McDonald

"Wow, you are eating fresh tomato!" I exclaimed, noticing my 15-year old boy busy with his Tacos filled with the stuff, including a big pile of tomato (Salsa, okay). Fresh ones!

Why surprised? He tried a bite of fresh tomato, vomited. That was when he was 3. Ever since, no! Thank you tomatoes; except the sauces on Pizza.

"Oh, it is goo..." Obviously, he is too busy to pay attention to his mom.

"Nice!" I told myself quietly. Chipotle, I will give you more money, for sure! Every time in the order line for In&Out burgers, I felt being robbed. Both my kids will demand, "no tomato, please" That was at least 15% of my bill being gone, volunteered by the lovely kids!

McDonald? It hasn't been their business for many years already. Both the kids have been avoiding that place like plague, disclaiming, "I don't want to be fat!"

Do something,  the Big Arch! And better do it quick, before my grandkids arrive :-)

Monday, March 9, 2015

Reh Digest 03/09/2015 Jobs No More

All is good about Apple watch, except one:

In order to use the watch in a non-watch way, the watch needs to be paired with an iPhone!

Think about this for couple minutes; why will anyone use the tiny watch screen when an crispy iPhone is in couple feet's reach? I would not. (Right now, I am typing on a 19-inch Mac Book, with my iPhone6s lying nearby. Bigger is always better when it comes to meet the eyes. At least, that is my case as I am getting closer to wear a bi-focal. )


Sunday, March 1, 2015

Reh Digest 03/01/2015: Buffet 2014 Shareholder Letter

The letter was released over the weekend. I have been trying to digest it in past days.

It has so much wisdom, from both Buffet and Charlie, that makes me wanting to read it again and again so that I can digest it well .

I am kind of feeling sad realizing that Buffet is actually getting old and will be eventually retire and be gone. In my mind, there is no second person in this world that can have his level of wisdom, especially in the sense of business. 

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Why DE, Not CAT?

Fundamentally, CAT is actually looking better than DE, or at least at par.

Why did Buffet go with DE, instead the No. 1 spotted CAT? It is due to the management team.

Deere is led by CEO Sam Allen, a 37-year Deere veteran who was promoted to the role in 2009. Allen’s predecessor heavily emphasized metrics like total shareholder value added and operating return on assets. Continuing to emphasize an alignment between management and employee incentives, the top 1,000 most senior employees receive stock options, with the top 125 required to hold a minimum multiple of their salary as Deere stock or options. The company’s metrics-driven approach has been successful, demonstrated by the past decade’s 19% average ROIC. Deere’s first priority is maintaining its A credit rating, which is valuable to keeping its financial-services business competitive with non-captive financing outlets and ensuring liquidity over the duration of the business cycle. After ensuring balance sheet health, the company takes on capital deployment opportunities that exceed its 12% return on operating assets hurdle. After meeting these two priorities, the company pays a 25%-33% dividend payout ratio of mid-cycle earnings and deploys remaining cash flow via share repurchases. To a large degree, these repurchases have added value and reflect an internal opinion of Deere’s intrinsic value. Over the past decade, Deere has distributed 58% of its cash flow from operations to shareholders through dividends or buybacks.

For CAT, Doug Oberhelman joined Caterpillar in 1975 and was head of the engine division before becoming CEO in 2010. Brad Halverson, formerly the vice president of financial services, is now CFO. Many of Caterpillar’s senior leaders have spent many years at the firm and have been rotated throughout the business. Although Caterpillar’s senior and business line leaders have different operating responsibilities, they are all measured on how much value they generate above a 15% pretax return on tangible assets threshold. On a business unit level, managers are assessed on asset turn velocity, safety performance, product quality, and market share gains. The combination of these metrics has generated an attractive growth profile over the past decade and the company has done a good job navigating the current mining downturn and the 10% consolidated revenue decline that it generated.