Monday, July 28, 2014

Ben Graham Speech & Advice --- Timeless

Still relevant! It's amazing, after so many years. No wonder people call Graham "Father of Security Analysis". A brief philosophy is categorized in following paragraphs.

Graham’s Defensive Seven Investment Criteria

Graham discussed seven historic investment criteria. They vary from a minimum size criteria to a price to assets ratio criteria.

The first is an adequate size of the enterprise: According to Graham the size of the firm is an indirect measure of safety. A smaller company is generally subject to wider fluctuations in earnings. In 1970 Graham recommended that an industrial company should have at least $100 million of annual sales, and a public utility company should have no less than $50 million in total assets. Adjusted for inflation, the numbers in 2000 would work out to approximately $465 million and $232 million respectively. Financial firms are not considered.

The next is a sufficiently strong financial condition. A stock should have a current ratio of at least two and long-term debt should not exceed working capital. For utilities, the debt should not exceed twice the stock equity at book value. This should act as a strong buffer against the possibility of bankruptcy or default.

Then is an earnings stability criteria. The company should not have reported a loss over the past 10 years. Companies that maintain at least some level of earnings are, on the whole, more stable.
There is a dividend record criteria. Company should have a history of paying dividends on its common stock for at least the past 20 years. This should provide some assurance that future dividends are likely to be paid.


Related to the dividend criteria is an earnings growth criteria. To help ensure a company's profits keep pace with inflation, net income should have increased by one-third or greater on a per-share basis over course of the past 10 years using three-year averages at the beginning and end.

There is also a price to earnings ratio criteria. For inclusion into a conservative buy and hold portfolio, the current price of a stock should not exceed fifteen times its average earnings for the past three years. This acts as a safeguard against overpaying for a security.

The last criteria is the Ratio of Price to Assets. According to this criteria current price should not be more than 1 1/2 times the book value last reported. However, a multiplier of earnings below 15 could justify a correspondingly higher multiplier of assets. As a rule of thumb the product of the multiplier times the ratio of price to book value should not exceed 22.5 (this corresponds to 15 times earnings and 1 1/2 times book value. It would admit an issue selling at only 9 times earnings and 2.5 times asset value, etc.) 

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Book: New Ideas from Dead CEO(s)

Half-way done with the book, it is quite interesting, by knowing portion of the greatest CEO(s)' past life, how they embarked their business ideas, how to take to next steps, and how to overcome the hurdles on the road to success. Of course, these are all very successful CEO(s) (there are thousands that failed by the way). This book unfolded the very reason(s) for them to be successful.

Bank of America --- determination, and seeking edge (serving the population that is unserved in traditional banking)

IBM --- sells "service", instead of a "machine", plus the quick following the "trend"

May Kay --- leverage the expertise and own "gut-feeling"

Estee Lauder --- aim for "high", observability, courage, and stick with the goal

(I can't wait to find time finishing the rest of the book)

Friday, July 25, 2014

16 Tips from Walter Schloss

1, Price is the most important factor to use in reaction to value

2, Try to establish the value of the company Remember a share of stock represents a part of a business and it not a piece of paper

3, Use book value as a starting point to try and establish the value of the enterprise. Be sure that debt does not equal 100% of the equity (Capital and surplus for the common stock)

4, Have patience. Stock don't go up immediately

5, Don't buy on tips or for a quick move. Let the professionals do that, if they can. Don't sell on bad news

6, Don't be afraid to be a loner but be sure that you are correct in your judgement. You can't be 100% certain but try to look for weakness in your thinking. Buy on a scale and sell on a scale up

7, Have the courage of your convictions once you have made a decision

8, Have a philosophy of investment and try to follow it. The above is a way that I've found successful

9, Don't be in too much of a hurry to sell. If the stock reaches a price you think is a fair one, then you can sell but often because a stock goes up say 50%, people say sell it and button up your profit. Before sell, try to reevaluate the company again and see where the stock sells in relation to its book value. Be aware of the level of the stock market. Are yields low and P-E ratios high. If the stock market historically high. Are people very optimistic

10, When buying a stock, I find it helpful to buy near the low of past few years. A stock may go as high as 125 and then decline to 60 and you think it attractive. 3 years before the stock sold at 20 which shows that there is some vulnerability in it

11, Try to buy assets at a discount than to buy earnings. Earnings can change dramatically in a short time. Usually assets change slowly. One has to know much more about a company if one buys earnings

12, Listen to suggestion from people you respect. This doesn't mean you have to accept them. remember it is your money and generally it is harder to keep money than to make it. Once you lose a lot of money, it is hard to make it back

13, Try not to let your emotions affect your judgement. Fear and greed are probably the worst emotions to have in connection with the purchase and sale of stocks

14, Remember the work compounding. For example, if you can make 12% a year and reinvest the money back, you will double your money in 6 yrs, taxes excluded. Remember the rule of 72. Your rate of return into 72 will tell you the number of years to double your money

15, Prefer stocks over bonds. Bonds will limit your gains and inflation will reducing your purchasing power

16, Be careful of leverage. It can go against you

Only video online: http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Resources/Video_Presentations/Guest_Speakers/2008/Schloss_2008.htm

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

The Schloss Approach in Brief


Philosophy and Style
Investors are best served using a Benjamin Graham value approach, looking for stocks that are hitting new lows and those trading at a price lower than their book value per share.
Universe of Stocks
Stocks are selected from among well-known “Campbell Soup” companies. Exclude foreign stocks and those in industries with which the investor is unfamiliar.
Criteria for Initial Consideration
• Ten-year track record
• No long-term debt
• A low price-to-book-value ratio
• A stock at or near its 52-week low price • High insider ownership

Portfolio Construction
• Limit holding of one stock to no more than 20% of entire portfolio
• Well-diversified portfolio of up to 100 stocks
• Holdings weighted based on their perceived values, putting less money in positions the investor is less sure about • Use limit orders to purchase stocks

Stock Monitoring and When to Sell
In general, try for a 50% profit from any holding before selling. If a stock’s price is falling and the company’s fundamentals are sound, buy more.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Which is more, number of Distiguished Engineers or number of Vice Presidents in Financial World?

It's probably more VP(s) than DE(s).

Vineyards and Profits May Not Go Hand in Hand

By HOLLY HUBBARD PRESTON
Published: June 24, 2001

MANY people would never consider plunking down several hundred thousand dollars or more to own an apple orchard or soybean farm. But put a vineyard property in front of them, one perched in a romantic location, and stars light up their eyes as visions of money-producing grapes, maybe even a wine label, go swishing through their heads.
It is easy for someone to get carried away, at least until a vineyard manager or wine consultant starts outlining the amount of time and money required to turn those visions into a profit.
Alphonse Pobeda, director of L'Avenir Immobilier, a real estate agency in the Gironde region of France, said a majority of people coming to him for vineyard property were ''nonexperts -- businessmen, Parisians and foreigners who want to own a vineyard for prestige.''
''Profitability is not always going to become a reality,'' Mr. Pobeda said.
Even as a pure investment, vineyard ownership is not guaranteed to provide big returns.''With a good sales system and a good vineyard, owners can aim for a 4 percent annual profit'' selling grapes in France, said Olivier de la Selle, manager of Agri France, a Paris subsidiary of BNP Paribas, the French bank.
On the surface, an investor could buy bonds with better returns and far less outlay and headache. An investment-class vineyard property can easily cost $500,000 to $2 million, depending on the region and the specific site.
What is the minimum acreage for a commercially viable investment property? The answer varies by region. In Italy, France and parts of the United States, 8 to 10 acres of premium grape-growing land can yield long-term investment returns of as much as 20 percent a year, depending on market demand for contract grape purchases. In Australia and South Africa, brokers say 40 to 60 acres is the minimum.
''You can buy cheaper properties, but usually you get what you pay for,'' said Angelika Smith-Aichbichler, co-owner of Piedmont Properties, an Italian vineyard property broker with offices in London.
There is a good reason for the high cost of sites with good soil, elevation and position toward the sun, she said: ''They grow better-quality wine grapes.'' She and her partner, an Italian winemaker with 20 years' experience in the business, screen all properties for soil quality and position before agreeing to listings.
A single region may have a wide range of property values. Land prices in some Australian regions, like Riverland in the south, have declined as an oversupply has driven down grape prices, said Philip Shaw, a partner at Colin Gaetjens & Shaw, a vineyard property brokerage firm in Adelaide.
BUYING the land is only part of the equation. There are grape yields, agricultural costs, taxes and insurance to consider, said Ren Harris, a veteran in the real estate business in the Napa Valley of California. The state requires no permits for planting vines, but owners in Italy and France may have to pay several thousand dollars for property permits.
Although grape yields can vary widely even within a region, top-quality ground in Napa Valley might produce four or five tons an acre per year and gross as much as $20,000 an acre in grape sales, said Mr. Harris, who, along with Jean Phillips, proprietor of the Screaming Eagle Winery, owns Ren Harris-Jean Phillips Land Brokers in St. Helena, Calif. An established vintner in his own right, Mr. Harris makes the Napa Valley boutique wine Paradigm.
From the gross profit in selling grapes, an investor will need to deduct agricultural maintenance costs that in the Napa Valley run $4,000 per acre. Add insurance, mortgage interest and property taxes, and the investment might not look so hot.
It is through winemaking and producing that an investor can make some real money. Vic Motto, a certified public accountant in the Napa Valley who has worked with dozens of vineyard owners, offered the following breakdown:
Consider the vineyard investor who grows and bottles about 5,000 cases of premium cabernet sauvignon, about the average yield for a small commercial winery in the valley. If that wine is sold at $40 to $50 a bottle retail, the investor's cut will be about $1.5 million.
If the same investor just sold to another winemaker the grapes grown on such a property, annual sales would be about $350,000. Grape prices in other markets are likely to be less, and contract prices everywhere vary, depending on supply and demand.
An investor who goes the winemaking route should be ready to make a large investment in equipment and other capital assets beyond the real estate, maybe three to four times that of a normal business, Mr. Motto said. But that, he added, is not necessarily bad, even before a vineyard becomes profitable.
''I've seen people who have a zero return see a tremendous capital appreciation because of assets,'' he said.
But investors in Australia cannot expect to be bailed out by rising land prices, at least for now.
''Good profits are being made making Australian wines,'' said Mr. Shaw, the Adelaide broker. ''But we're not seeing a rapid escalation in vineyard values.''
That said, bringing a new wine to market requires substantially more work than just growing grapes. A newcomer to the industry will probably need to hire a winemaker, at least on a consulting basis, and may choose to build a winery.
It is not always necessary to have a winery to make wine. Third-party producers in all major wine-growing regions can crush, ferment, barrel, bottle and age wines to specifications set by a winemaker or vineyard owner.
Likewise, winemaking does not require owning a vineyard.
But Doug Shafer, president of Shafer Vineyards, whose Napa Valley wines sell for $50 to $150 a bottle, said: ''Quality wine is made in the vineyard. When you buy your grapes from someone else, it is hard to assure that quality.''
BEYOND requiring substantial initial outlays, vineyard investments need a long time to yield a return.
Newly planted vines need at least three years to start producing grapes suitable for wine. With two to three years of barrel aging, a vintner could wait five to seven years before seeing the first revenue.
The buyer of a plot with mature vines who chooses to sell the grapes has a good chance of seeing returns within 12 months. But Ms. Smith-Aichbichler of Piedmont Properties warned that even that investor should have about two years of working capital to fall back on.
All these costs help explain why lending institutions specializing in vineyard properties expect a huge amount of due diligence on the part of prospective investors.
''We advise clients to pay the maximum up front and limit borrowing to between 20 percent and 30 percent of purchase price,'' said Mr. de la Selle at Agri France.
Photo: The Italian town of Serralunga d'Alba is in the heart of the Barolo region, famous for the dry red wine that its vineyards produce. (From ''A Traveller's Wine Guide to Italy'' [Interlink Books, 1997]) Chart: ''The Acreage List'' Average prices per vineyard acre in U.S. dollars U.S. REGION: Napa Valley PRICE: $149,392-$199,190 Australia* REGION: Barossa Valley PRICE: $15,890-$19,078 REGION: Coonawarra PRICE: $19,079-$23,320 REGION: Hunter Valley PRICE: $12,712-$15,890 REGION: Yarra Valley PRICE: $18,016-$21,194 France REGION: Champagne PRICE: $122,267 REGION: Alsace PRICE: $30,445 REGION: Burgundy PRICE: $24,899 REGION: Bordeaux PRICE: $17,490 REGION: Rhone Valley PRICE: $10,202 REGION: Loire Valley PRICE: $6,964 REGION: Languedoc-Roussillon PRICE: $4,575 Italy REGION: Piedmont PRICE: $26,647-$35,526 South Africa REGION: Cape Winelands PRICE: $12,550 *Premium (Sources: Colin Gaetjens & Shaw [Australia]; Piedmont Properties [Italy]; Ren Harris-Jean Phillips Land Brokers [California]; Pam Golding Properties [South Africa]; Safer [France].)

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Ebay

Earning finally came. In line with my expectation. With ICahn on the boat, the boat can't sink too long.

Noodles Has Its Place In People's Stomach

My view is:

1) It is much more welcomed by parents, when picking for their children, just think about all the green veges in each dish

2) Comparing to Panda Express, these dishes offer much more varieties that can attract returning customers, again and again

3) People get tired of one taste over time; Noodles offers a new venue

4) Varieties plays a big role to attract families with appetite varieties, for example, I can find nothing to eat when going to MacDonalds. Often times, I ended up coming out empty-stomached

5) A big drawback for Noodles, variety demands more different ingredients. Can that be a factor for slow expanding? Translated into "profit margin": NDLS 1.59% CMG 9% MCD 18% (1Q 2014)

Now, let's take a look at these pictures----




Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Sports --- from watching daughter's tennis match

Who can do sports? Why to do sports? Watching the 12 and under matches between my daughter's club and the other host club, I can not stopping thinking --- if you are good at sport(s), you must be smart!

This is why the ivy-colleges recruit the top athelets.

The Ultimate Abs Challenge for a Flat Tummy - 5 Minutes Plank

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Money Stories [ZT]

1)
有一个商人到了一个山村,村子周围的山上全是猴子。
商人就和村子种地的农民说,我买猴子,100元一只。
村民不知是真是假,试着抓猴子,商人果然给了100元。
于是全村的人都去抓猴子,这比种地合算得多了。
很快商人买了两千多只猴子,山上猴子很少了。
商人这时又出价200元一只买猴子,村民见猴价翻番,便又纷纷去抓,
商人又买了,但猴子已经很难抓到了。
商人又出价300元一只买猴子,猴子几乎抓不到了。
商人出价到500元一只,山上已没有猴子,三千多只猴子都在商人这里。

这天,商人有事回城里,他的助手到村里和农民们说,我把猴子300元一只卖你们,

等商人回来,你们500元卖给商人,你们就发财了。
村民疯了一般,把锅砸了卖铁,凑够钱,把三千多只猴子全买了回去。

助手带着钱走了,商人再也没有回来。
村民等了很久很久,他们坚信商人会回来500元买他们的猴子,终于有人等不急了,
猴子还要吃香蕉,这要费用啊,就把猴子放回了山上,山上仍然到处是猴子。

这就是传说中的股市!
这就是传说中的信托!
这就是传说中的黄金市场!
这就是传说中的房市!
这是我看到过的最精辟的解读,没有之一!!

(2)
这是炎热小镇慵懒的一天。太阳高挂,街道无人,每个人都债台高筑,靠信用度日。

这时,从外地来了一位有钱的旅客,他进了一家旅馆,拿出一张1000元钞票放在柜台,

说想先看看房间,挑一间合适的过夜。

就在此人上楼的时候,店主抓了这张1000元钞,跑到隔壁屠户那里支付了他欠的肉钱。

屠夫有了1000元,横过马路付清了猪农的猪本钱。

猪农拿了1000元,出去付了他欠的饲料款。

那个卖饲料的老兄,拿到1000元赶忙去付清他召妓的钱(经济不景气,当地的服务业

也不得不提供信用服务)。

有了1000元,这名妓女冲到旅馆付了她所欠的房钱。

旅馆店主忙把这1000元放到柜台上,以免旅客下楼时起疑。

此时那人正下楼来,拿起1000元,声称没一间满意的,他把钱收进口袋,走了……

这一天,没有人生产了什么东西,也没有人得到什么东西,可全镇的债务都清了,

大家很开心……

这个故事告诉了我们一个什么道理?

答案:现金是要流通才能产生价值!而经济永远存在炒作!太牛了不转都不行!

转贴

How to succeed?


Saturday, July 5, 2014

China (5)

Five Brands that are hot in China:

Howard Johnson hotel (WYN)
Buick
Budweiser
Pizza Hut
Pabst Blue Ribbon

Thursday, July 3, 2014

China (4)

China is getting old before they get rich.

Opposite is in America, get rich before getting old

Another note, US is the largest Natural Gas provider

China's growth accounts for 1/3 of the Global growth! As of early this year, China controls 41%, 38%, and 33%, respectively, of the global market shares in data processing, clothing and textiles.

What is not involved? An interesting business summary from Yahoo!Finance

Business Summary
XXX is a private equity investment firm specializing in acquisitions, leveraged buyouts, management buyouts, special situations, growth equity, mature, mezzanine, distressed, and middle market investments. The firm considers investments in all industries with a focus on technology and hardware, consumer products and services industry, industry-leading franchises and companies in natural resource, energy and infrastructure assets, real estate, containers and packaging, commodity chemicals, airports, ports, forestry, textiles, apparel and luxury goods, household durables, leisure facilities, communications, media, transportation related assets, insurance, brokerage houses, non-durable goods distribution, supermarket retailing, healthcare, hospitals, entertainment venues and production companies, publishing, printing services, capital goods, financial services, pipelines, and renewable energy. In energy and infrastructure, it typically focuses in upstream production and surrounding services as well as in the long-lived infrastructure assets that provide critical links in the supply chain and electric and gas utilities. In real estate, the firm seeks to invest in private and public real estate securities including property-level equity, debt and special situations transactions and businesses with significant real estate holdings, and oil and natural gas properties. The firm seeks to invest in mid- to high-end residential developments, but can invest in other projects throughout Mainland China through outright ownership, joint ventures, and merger. It typically invests globally with a focus on Australia, emerging and developed Asia, Middle East and Africa, Nordic, Southeast Asia, Asia Pacific, Ireland, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom, Caribbean, Mexico, South America, North America, Latin America, Korea, Canada, and United States of America. In the United States and Europe, the firm focuses on buyouts of large, publicly traded companies. It seeks to invest $30 million to $717 million in companies with enterprise values between $597 million to $2389 million. The firm prefers to invest in a range of debt and public equity investing and may co-invest. It seeks a board seat in its portfolio companies and a controlling ownership of a company or a strategic minority positions. The firm typically holds its investment for a period of five to seven years and more and exits through initial public offerings, secondary offerings, and sales to strategic buyers.XXX was founded in 1976 and is based in New York, New York with additional offices across North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

Side notes, it has only 999 employees, co-CEO(s) make around $50M, CPA makes $5M. Obviously, they have a pretty good business

China (3)

Chatting with a close friend over the phone, I was surprised (or not) to hear that he is buying Dollar; and thinking China is going to face some pretty tough problems. Even though the houses were purchased by "real money", rather than "mortgage", people will stop spending once their biggest, sometime only, asset shrink its value by 30%, if that does happen.

Will Chinese government do whatever it takes to prevent that from happening? Maybe, I think.

Drones

Technology has developed to a stage that almost EVERYTHING in the world can be asked this question, "can you be done more efficiently?" and the answer lies in "high tech". That is right; looking around, all the hype in the economy is around "technology".

Tech may very well be the weapon for Obama, just like the national parks for Roosevelt!

Here is an area that can become big,

13 cutting-edge drone companies you should know 

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Interest Rate

It will remain low for a while. The poor and middle class has not caught up this "recovery" yet. Unless, those are the group that is taken out this time?